Game Preview: Hawks vs Ducks 12/07/2023

The Mighty Ducks of Anaheim flock to the West Side of Chicago tonight at 5:30. Yes. I am very aware the Ducks don’t go by that name anymore. The Hawks have lost their last 4 and have scored only 6 goals while letting in 16. Their record for their last 10 is 2-7-1 as the Hawks have settled like a dead duck in last place. A win tonight is more for the sake of the player's morale than anything else.

The Ducks Disney magic start of a season has screeched to a halt, they are 1-9-0 for their last 10. They’ve rejoined the familiar losers club at the bottom of the standings at the number 30 spot. Only San Jose and the Hawks are below them. It’s almost a familiar December to last year when the tank race for Bedard was raging on.

The Blackhawks

The Hawks are struggling to make any sort of consistency this season. They picked up their first loser point in their last match against the Predators. The Hawks have also failed to string together consecutive wins. It’s December and game number 25 tonight and the Hawks have yet to win back-to-back matches.

Their inability to capitalize on the power play has been an ugly blemish. Their D-zone blunders and sub-optimal goal-tending haven't been helpful. Sprinkle in a lack of offensive talent and this is what you get.

Connor Bedard has been the lone consistent offensive player with 11 goals and 9 assists. With Taylor Hall out for the season and Corey Perry gone, the Hawks' plan for the season is looking quite bleak. Kyle Davidson recently added Anthony Beauvillier after a trade with Vancouver. The move is an attempt to bolster a paper-thin roster.

The Ducks

The Ducks surprised everyone with a nice start to the season. They had a 6 game-winning streak with wins against teams like the Vegas Golden Knights and the Bruins. It was cute, and I’m not going to lie, I was a little jealous, but the reality of this team has finally landed.

Of course, the main attraction this season is the Ducks' young talent. 2nd overall pick Leo Carlsson is making strides in his development. Mason McTavish is crushing it with 21 points in 24 games. Frank Vatrano, who’s 29, has also had a nice start this season with 14 goals, 9 assists, and 23 points. Cover boy Trevor Zegras, meanwhile, has only put up 2 points in 12 games played. Zegras is also on injured reserve for the foreseeable future.

As of this writing McTavish is day-to-day with an upper-body injury he sustained on Dec. 4, per CapFriendly.

Head-to-Head

All stats are from Natural Stat Trick. Click here for a glossary of terms if you aren’t familiar with fancy stats.

Both teams look a little similar in the analytics department. In 5v5 stats, the Ducks have a slight edge in possession with a Corsi For % (CF%) of 48.23 to the Hawks 45.23. When two low-possession teams meet, it usually has the making for fun and sloppy hockey.

Ducks also have the edge in expected goals share with a 46.47 expected goals percentage (xGF%) to the Hawks 43.40xGF%.

Scoring chances are close with the Ducks generating 46.45% of scoring chances in their games to the Hawks 43.77%. The high-danger chances are where things look a little different. The Hawks have a staggering 39.73% of high-danger chances in their games. The Ducks aren’t much better at 46.45, but the Hawks need to figure things out in the attack zone.

Goaltending isn’t much different with a 5v5 save percentage (SV%) of .907 to the Hawks and .901 to the Ducks. Petr Mrazek will be starting for the Hawks tonight and he has been our bright spot in the net. He has a .899 SV%, all strengths, as his numbers have dipped a bit as of late. His goals against average (GAA) is 3.42.

For the Ducks, John Gibson has been solid in the net with a .908 SV% and a 2.77 GAA. He’s played 18 games, having most of the starts in net. As of this writing, he is expected to be in net tonight. If Lukas Dostal starts, the Hawks can take advantage of his mediocre .878 SV% and 4.30 GAA.

For special teams, the Hawks have been struggling all season. While the penalty kill (PK) started off strong, it’s taken a hit as they’ve allowed shorthanded goals. Their powerplay (PP) has been atrocious all season long. The Hawks PP has had a success rate of 10.7% to the Ducks at 22%. The Hawks PK is in the bottom 10 at 74.4% and the Ducks are successful 80% of the time.

Both teams are pretty close with the edge going to the Ducks. The Hawks do have a higher “goals for” per 60 minutes, however. Averaging 2.33 to the Ducks 1.97.

It should be a very sloppy one tonight. And sloppy hockey is fun.

Players to Watch

For the Hawks, the obvious one will always be Connor Bedard. We can expect something to happen tonight as Beavillier gets comfortable with Bedard and Philipp Kurashev. They’ve only played 2 games as a line and have a 44.83 CF%. The reason why this line isn't producing is because they get hemmed in their own zone most of the time. By the time they break out, their shift is already up. It’ll be interesting to see this line play against a team closer to their level.

Lukas Reichel has been the subject of a lot of concern as of late. Tonight he’ll be on the fourth line again. He had his flashes last game but it was once again overshadowed by an uninspired performance. Only 1 shot on goal in 12:24 of ice time.

Louis Crevier will be on the third defensive pairing tonight. He looked quiet last game, which is what we want out of a young defenseman.

For the Ducks, McTavish is currently day-to-day with an upper-body injury. If he doesn’t play tonight that’ll be an advantage for the Hawks. Vatrano has been solid with 23 points. Forward Ryan Strome has 17 points with 14 assists. Carlsson has 13 points with 8 goals and 5 assists and he is the player to watch for the Ducks. The 2nd overall pick will garner attention in his matchup against Bedard.

The Ducks have done a wonderful job at developing Carlsson in his first NHL season. With an alternating game schedule for the rookie, Carlsson isn’t getting worn down. The young talent is producing.

I’m doing the controversial and putting Seth Jones up here. Last game he looked good. He was everywhere. He activated and got low in the offensive zone and made great defensive plays. If he played like that every night, I would be silent on the Jones hate train.

Closing Thoughts

The Hawks need to put some grit out there tonight. Look, we all get it. This is a bad team that lost two of their most impactful players, and they play like it. But the Hawks have to stop playing down to their competition. The Ducks are in a nasty stretch of losing 9 in their last 10. The Hawks cannot afford embarrassment by letting another bad team outperform them. Even if the Hawks lose, as long as they play good hockey out there, we can sleep like babies.

Unfortunately, the Ducks might take this one. The Hawks don’t have a good track record against bad teams. The Ducks' last 10 is not sustainable and they are due for a couple of wins. If Jones plays like he did last game, if Reichel decides to wake up, and if the Bedard line can produce, we have a chance. Don’t expect a win.

Keep an eye on Bedard’s line and if Reichel makes any strides in his game. Hawks' special teams will be detrimental if they can’t get anything going. Both teams are bad and when two bad teams play, we get the Turd Bowl. Turd Bowls are always fun to watch. Let’s hope the Hawks bring the fire tonight.

Let’s Go Hawks.