Game Preview: Hawks @ Kraken 1/24/2024
Stats are from Natural Stat Trick. Here's a glossary of terms.
The dead of winter is settling in like a rat's carcass with rigor mortis.
What better way to cheer yourself up than with a mid-week hockey game?
Sure, Bedard is still weeks away from recovering and the Blackhawks' offense is about as exciting as cold meatloaf.
Ok. Maybe I'm not helping your winter depression or whatever they call it these days.
Will tonight help or make it worse?
The Blackhawks
47 Games Played
14-31-2
31st
The Hawks are on game 2 of their pre-All Star break road trip.
Their last game was a 2-0 loss to the Vancouver Canucks. The loss added number 15 for the amount of consecutive road game losses.
Can the Hawks catch a break tonight against a middling Kraken team?
The Blackhawks offense has been struggling. They have been unable to finish on the few chances that come their way. You can have all the heart in the world and play a game like they did in Vancouver, but you still need to finish on your chances.
Que the cliche "get the puck to the net."
The Hawks are second-to-last in terms of scoring chances percentage. They own an average of 41.85% of 5-v-5 scoring chances.
They also have an actual goals percentage of 38.71%.
Possession numbers aren't better. They own 43.90% of 5-v-5 shot attempts (Corsi). Good enough for second-to-last.
Defense will still be a problem, as is the case when you have rookies on the blue line. That's ok and to be expected.
Goal tending is only decent when you have Petr Mrazek in net. In 32 games he has a .907 Save Percentage (SV%). But he can only do so much when the defense in front of him falls apart.
Looking at the past 10 games, your best Hawks players are below (in terms of production).
Boris Katchouk, Colin Blackwell, and Jason Dickinson are all tied with the most goals at 3. (Again, past 10 games, not season totals).
Dickinson and Zach Sanford are tied with the most assists at 3.
As far as on-ice impact, the best player is as follows.
Dickinson has the best Corsi percentage at 52.81% (5v5).
I'll be honest, the rest of the fancy stats are pretty mediocre for this team. For example, Jaycob Megna has the best expected goals for at 5.9. What that's telling you is that in the past 10 games, according to this number, Megna has been taking shots that have the best chance of scoring a goal.
I warned you, didn't I?
The Kraken
46 games played
19-18-9
23rd
For a city that prides itself in having gum covered walls, the Kraken are going through some downs this season. They're currently in the midst of a 4 game losing streak.
This is a team that needs to be fighting for a wild card spot. With 47 points, things are looking pretty grim. It's a tight race in the West.
Comparing the same stats we looked at for the Hawks, the Kraken fair better at scoring chances, 52.11%. Not bad and it puts them at number 10 in the league.
Their goals share is also not horrible. They own 51.16% of all goals in 5v5 situations.
They also own 50.95% of shot attempts, meaning their possession numbers are meh.
So this is just a pretty meh team that is struggling with possession. Their defense doesn't look too bad with an expected goals against of 89.57 and an actual goals against of 84. But that can be attributed to their goaltending.
Their goaltending has been solid with Joey Daccord. In 30 games played, he has a .922 SV%. The team as a whole has a .921SV% in 5v5 situations.
In their last 10 games their leading goal scorers is Jared McCann with 4.
Oliver Bjorkstrand leads with 8 assists and points with 9.
End
I hate predicting games because, in the NHL, anything can happen.
I do believe the Hawks have an unsustainable losing streak on the road and they might break it tonight.
Looking at nerd numbers, the Kraken are the better team. But the Hawks either play well against great teams or pretty poorly against everyone else.
Who knows. It's the dead of winter.
