Alex Vlasic's First Season Breakdown

You're probably wondering to yourself "Why am I watching the Blackhawks right now."

Bedard is injured. Any player with a talented bone in their body is injured. The team is stapled together with what seems to be the IceHogs and other random misfits.

So, what's the point? If you're just watching because you like hockey, isn't there hockey out there that's actually good? I mean, there's 31 other teams that put a better product on the ice, right?

Maybe you're a loyal Hawks fan. Committed to the Indian. Much like someone devoid of confidence in a one-sided emotionally abusive relationship, you can't leave.

Look, I'll be real. Alex Vlasic alone isn't worth watching this dumpster fire of a team play.

However, he's certainly a cup of fresh water in this hell Hawks fans are forced to endure.

I'll talk about Vlasic in this post. What he was, who he is right now, and where he will (realistically) be in the future.

Who was Vlasic?

Drafted by the Chicago Blackhawks, the 2nd round, 43rd overall pick was a product of the one and only Stan Bowman. Yep. Can't hide that fact.

The 6'6'' giant was a departure from the norm for Bowman, who had been drafting somewhat smaller-sized defenseman.

The Wilmette, IL native went right into college following the draft in 2019 to play at Boston University. The left-handed defenseman would play three years there from 2019 until 2022.

In a total of 82 games (including a COVID-19 shortened season of 16 games), Vlasic put up 4 goals and 12 assists.

It was at the end of 2022 that Vlasic made his first NHL appearance with 15 games, 1 goal, and 1 assist. But he looked a little lost out there.

He needed time to develop. As is the case with many, if not most, young defensemen.

So for the following season, 2022-23, Vlasic spent his time in Rockford where Kyle Davidson wanted him to be "the guy" on the blue line. In 56 games he put up 2 goals and 17 assists.

But it's not the stat sheet that's impressive. Because, well. It's not.

It's the little things he does.

During his 6 game stint in the NHL at the end of the '22 season, it was his reach and shut-down play that impressed. He was calm and not flustered. And for one giant dude with the wingspan of a pterodactyl, he looked like he could skate.

Which leads us to today.

Who is Vlasic?

Alex Vlasic is not a scorer. His game is defense and he models it after his cousin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic of the San Jose Sharks.

His stats aren't eye-popping by any means with 1 goal and 9 assists this season.

To get a better idea of his play style, you either have to watch him play (which is the best way) or dive into his fancy stats.

When you watch Vlasic play, the first thing you'll notice is his reach. He knows how to wield it. The amount of times that he breaks up plays and follows it up with well-placed breakout passes has been encouraging.

To get a solid idea of his play style, I've compiled Scott Powers' clips into one video.

It's those defensive shutdown plays that don't make their way onto the stat sheet. You need to watch him play to truly appreciate the skill he brings to the ice.

His breakouts have been notable for a rookie defenseman. There's the perfectly placed stretch pass to Corey Perry, for example.

His expected goals against (xGA) per 60 min is 2.51. That's the second lowest for Hawks defensemen. The lowest is Jaycob Megna at 1.46 and he's been looking ok with only 13 games under his belt as a Hawks.

Vlasic faces 62.32 shot attempts per 60 min., second lowest among Hawks defensemen.

Compared to all NHL defensemen with over 100 min. of ice time, he ranks 112 for xGA per 60, and that's out of 233 players.

To make the player card from All Three Zones make sense, all of those stats are using "z-score."

Z-Score is just a pretentious way of showing how a player does in specific categories relative to the league average.

So, if a player has a 0, that means they are average at something.

Looking at Vlasic, he scores a 2.50 for DZ retrievals per 60. That's above the league average by a lot.

He also scores high in DZ puck touches, which can be used to determine workload. This would include any time Vlasic touches the puck in an attempt to break the puck out.

You can also see the numbers on how impactful his defensive play has been. His successful retrieval rate and retrievals leading to exits are both above average (.76 and 1.30 respectively).

These pretty graphs and numbers aren't just to sound cool with random acronyms. Other than watching him play defense, this is the best way to gauge and measure how he's been doing as a defensive defenseman this season. And it's pretty damn good considering he's 22.

Who Will Vlasic Be?

It's awesome to see how well he's playing this season. But where will Vlasic be on this roster in the future?

He's locked a spot in this future for the Hawks. But what role does Vlasic have?

His size and reach help him play a strong defensive game and he was initially projected to be a 3rd pairing defenseman. He blocks shots, gets in shooting lanes, and isn't afraid to body up.

As this season has progressed, Vlasic is making a strong case as a second-pairing defenseman. He's much more patient and doesn't rely on just his reach.

More impressively is his skating. It's gotten a lot better. There have been numerous occasions when Vlasic surprised everyone with a breakaway. The giant ostrich on skates just hasn't finished on any of them.

He's showing he can bring more to the table than just defense and has also seen time on the powerplay.

This season has forced Vlasic to see time as a 1st pairing defenseman with Seth Jones at times. That doesn't mean Vlasic will be a top-pairing defenseman in the future. He's just having one hell of a season.

This brings us to wonder if this is just an outlier in what will might be a third-pairing defenseman.

However, he's improved every year since he was drafted and he still has many years to develop. What this card from JFresh Hockey shows us is his projected skill. WAR (another pretentious acronym) is wins above replacement. Essentially, how many wins will Vlasic contribute compared to an average replacement-level player.

Confused? Take solace that beyond making you go "hmm, interesting," his 90% WAR just means that Vlasic is projecting to be good. I wouldn't take that as gospel, however.

Hockey is random. And as far as the Hawks go, the only sure thing is Bedard.

With Vlasic's Entry Level Contract (ELC) coming to an end this summer, that brings us to the next question. What kind of deal is Vlasic worth?

Does Kyle Davidson sign him on a long-term deal?

Vlasic doesn't produce a lot of points individually. No big point totals means a lower deal.

Maybe Davidson gives Vlasic a bridge deal. Maybe he'll play it safe and not rush into anything after one good season. I mean it must be easy to stand out as a decent rookie on an otherwise putrid Blackhawks roster.

Initially, he seemed to have a 3rd pairing role locked down. This season, however, makes me believe that he's going to be a solid second-pairing defenseman. I would even argue that he could be a #4 defenseman on most NHL teams at this moment.

Whether he exceeds expectations and is on the second pair with the Hawks, or if he does end up being a third-pairing defenseman, I feel confident that Alex Vlasic will be a part of this team for the foreseeable future.